Fantasy Preview: Porter-Broner, Bradley-Vargas Weekend

The next group of games sees two weeks of action packed fights. The featured fights are Shawn Porter vs. Andrien Broner, fighting 6/20 on NBC, and Tim Bradley vs. Jessie Vargas, fighting 6/27 on HBO. Let’s take a look at all the matchups.
Need help with scoring? Here’s a look at the scoring breakdown for fantasy boxing at ThrowdownFantasy.com

Featured Fight
June 20
At Las Vegas (NBC/NBC Sports Net)

Shawn Porter ($4,600) vs. Adrien Broner ($4,900) — For Porter to win he must summon the “hot” version of his hot-and-cold persona, which features accurate punching, hand speed and effective pressuring tactics. He also must take advantage of Broner’s slow-starting tendencies and establish an early lead with volume and initiative. For Broner to win he must try to get off to a quicker start than usual and reach the high gear he was known for reaching when he campaigned at 130 and 135. He should use his quicker and heavier hands to achieve dominance and use his jab to open up the scar tissue that lays heavily over Porter’s eyes.
Our suggestion: Broner doesn’t throw a lot of punches (44.2 per round over his last five) but he makes the most of them (41% overall, 47% power) and doesn’t get hit a lot in return. His high plus-minuses make him an attractive choice, but will he achieve them against a man who, at his best, can be very, very good? If he’s the “bad” Porter, it’s almost a sure thing but with “Showtime” Shawn, who knows? Broner’s scattered history at welterweight in terms of numbers and his still immature attitude are factors that make it harder to install “The Problem” as an even bigger favorite and if Porter is one thing, he is a grounded and steady performer mentally.


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Featured Fight
June 27
At Carson, CA (HBO)

Timothy Bradley ($5,300) vs Jessie Vargas ($4,400) — For Bradley to win he must use his superior boxing ability to keep Vargas feeling like the second-rate fighter in this bout.  Bradley has an arsenal of weapons, great footwork, and tons of championship experience, which should all come into play in this fight.  For Vargas to win he must make it a point to be extremely busy.  He needs to use his footwork, and throw flurries of punches.  He must outwork Bradley and look to steal as many rounds as possible.
Our suggestion: Despite not owning a victory in his last two fights, Bradley is still one of the top pound for pound fighters in the sport today.  He is taking a seemingly unwarranted risk in fighting a young, undefeated prospect in Jessie Vargas, who does not carry a big fan base.  Vargas appears to be getting stronger with each fight, looking most impressive in his last bout against Antonio DeMarco.  However, taking on Bradley is a whole different proposition.  In addition to fighting a first-class champion, Vargas is also moving up to welterweight in this fight.  This will likely prove to be especially problematic for him because of his lack of power.  Vargas has not knocked out an opponent since 2011. If Bradley does not respect his power, it will likely be a long night for the young undefeated challenger.  The guess here is that Bradley is just too much for Vargas and will cruise to an easy victory.

June 20
At Las Vegas (NBC/NBC Sports Net)

Errol Spence Jr. ($5,800) vs. Roberto Garcia ($4,400)– For Spence to win he must continue to do what he’s been doing since turning pro: Rev up the high volume/high accuracy game and pelt the doggedly determined Garcia with combinations until the Mexican drops or the final bell rings. Speed, movement, variety and focus will be key because Garcia, while having been dropped in each of his last two fights, won’t likely stay down easily. For Garcia to win he must be aggressive, use plenty of head movement and work inside at every opportunity. He must use his superior experience and comparable volume to draw Spence into a trench war instead of a high-speed chess match and to inspire mental pressure that would make Spence think “I’m definitely taking a step up in competition here, and I must find another gear to get by.”
Our suggestion: Spence is an expensive pick because, thus far, he has been nothing short of sensational in terms of numbers. In his last three fights he has averaged 103, 98 and 77 punches per round and has landed at an absurdly high rate. The tall southpaw has an agreeable style in Garcia, who will bring pressure and (ideally) similar volume that will draw out Spence’s considerable talent. He also isn’t a crushing one-punch KO artist, so unless he completely overwhelms Garcia early this one likely will go rounds — and build numbers.

At Oakland, Calif. (BET)

Andre Ward ($5,700) vs. Paul Smith  ($4,400) – For Ward to win he needs to shake off the considerable rust that has built in recent years and apply the ring science that has served him so well over the years. He must blunt Smith’s pressure with precise counters, swallow him up in clinches whenever he barrels inside and thoroughly frustrate him with his stiletto-sharp jabs. For Smith to win he has to throw caution to the wind from the start and rattle Ward’s cage with instant and consistent pressure, build an early lead to force Ward to play catch-up and not give Ward any time to use his high boxing IQ.
Our suggestion: Ward’s extremely long stretch of inactivity presents an air of mystery and makes it difficult to gauge where he is at this point of his career. But given his mindset and extreme maturity, one must assume that Ward will be fully prepared for the challenge ahead. While Smith is qualified for this assignment, he still is a notch or two below Ward in terms of pedigree. Statistically, Ward is similar to Broner — moderate output but excellent efficiency.

At Montreal

Hassan N’Dam ($4,600) vs. David Lemieux ($5,100) – For N’Dam to prevail on Lemieux’s home soil he has to dig out the blueprint that worked so well last time out against Curtis Stevens — move, box, counter and score all night long while also lulling Lemieux into a slow-paced, mild boxing match. He must give every reason for the boisterous Bell Centre crowd to sit quietly and watch their hero crumble before the Frenchman’s science. If he can use his strong jab to force Lemieux backward, all the better because Lemieux is a far different — and far less effective fighter — when he’s not moving forward. For Lemieux to win he must forget all about this boxing stuff and be the animal that has scored 31 knockouts in 33 victories. He needs to establish his two-fisted power from the jump and make this as chaotic for the Frenchman as is humanly possible. Then, once that power is established, Lemieux must ride the crowd’s sonic wave until he comes into shore with the IBF middleweight title strapped around his waist, and he hopes that will occur before the fight’s second half begins.
Our suggestion: This is a tough fight to call because each has weaknesses that can be exploited by the other man’s strengths — and all scenarios are within the realm of possibility. N’Dam’s boxing style can easily frustrate the mentally shakable Lemieux but the French-Canadian’s power can take advantage of the chin that let down N’Dam six times against Peter Quillin a few years ago. Home ring advantage and the vast edge in power and explosiveness will serve Lemieux well here and that’s why he’s more expensive.

Dierry Jean ($5,200) vs. Jerry Belmontes ($4,300) — For Jean to prevail he must assert his heavier but still speedy hands and batter him with dynamic combinations from bell to bell. For Belmontes to win he must establish his height and reach and keep Jean as far away from him as possible. Long-range boxing is a must because if Jean gets close it could be good night.
Our suggestion: These are fighters going in different directions; Jean has won three straight, all by knockout, since his only loss against then-IBF titlist Lamont Peterson 17 months earlier while Belmontes has lost six of his last eight, including three straight. Add to that the fact that this will be staged in Jean’s home area and the writing is on the wall. Belmontes will hang in there (two of his last three losses were by split decision) but the guess here is that Jean will get the job done.

June 21
At Las Vegas (CBS)

Rances Barthelemy ($5,500) vs. Antonio DeMarco ($4,400) — For Barthelemy to win he must riddle DeMarco’s sub-par defenses with straight, hard and accurate power shots and to not be discouraged if the former titlist doesn’t go away quickly. That said, DeMarco has been dropped twice in his last five fights. For DeMarco to win he must force Barthemely backward and force a toe-to-toe slugfest where the differences in hand speed and ring age will shrink.
Our suggestion: Barthelemy may be only five months younger but he’s the far fresher man than DeMarco, who has gone through the wars in his 36-fight career. DeMarco is easy to hit but tough to discourage so if this goes a few rounds, Barthelemy could rack up some big numbers.

Sammy Vasquez ($5,000) vs. Wale Omotoso ($4,500) — For Vasquez to win he should take the fight to Omotoso with high volume and sneaky power while for Omotoso he needs to weather the early storm and seize on all the countering opportunities created by Vasquez’s aggression. He also must hope that Vasquez’s energy level will be somewhat compromised by not fighting in his home area of western Pennsylvania but rather the bright lights of Las Vegas, where Vasquez has fought only once before. Omotoso, meanwhile, has always fought far away from home and should be comfortable amidst the geographical circumstances.
Our suggestion: Vasquez is a rising talent and Omotoso represents perhaps his best opponent to date. So far, “The Who Can Mexican” has demonstrated a can-do attitude backed up by high numbers and excellent accuracy (48% over the last five fights) while Omotoso struggled when he stepped up against Jessie Vargas three fights ago. The guess is that Omotoso will struggle again here.

June 26
At Hidalgo, TX (truTV)

Diego Magdaleno ($4,900) vs Jose A. “Chelo” Gonzalez ($4,800) — For Magdaleno to win he must exercise patience in the early rounds.  He needs to probe until he gets his timing down, and also try to expose Gonzalez’s vulnerability to body shots.  These body shots will pay dividends in the late rounds, where Magdaleno should then look to land both his strong lead right and his looping left which he can throw from different angles.  For Gonzalez to win he must get off to a quick start.  His jab is his best weapon in this fight and he needs to constantly throw it to keep Magdaleno off of him.  Gonzalez does have a nice arsenal of combinations that he should use, but at the same time be mindful of conserving his energy for the championship rounds.
Our suggestion: This appears to be an extremely even fight on paper.  Both fighters were undefeated challengers for world titles in 2013, and both fighters came up a little bit short.  Magdaleno owns four consecutive wins since his loss to champion Rocky Martinez, and Gonzalez owns two consecutive victories since he quit on the stool against champion Ricky Burns.   Magdaleno’s power has been often questioned, however four out of his last six victories came within the distance.  Gonzalez’s heart has often been questioned after saying “no mas” before the tenth round bell sounded against Burns.  Although we do not know how serious the wrist injury was, Gonzalez has shown strong resilience by coming up with second and fifth round stoppages since his sole loss.  This is a great crossroads fight where both men have a lot to prove.  The guess here is that Magdaleno has just a slightly higher skill set and better conditioning than Gonzalez, which will prove to be the difference in this bout.

June 26
At Hidalgo, TX (truTV)

Gilberto Ramirez ($5,100) vs Derek Edwards ($4,600) — For Ramirez to win he must continue to keep his punch output extremely high, while simultaneously staying away from Edwards’ wheelhouse.  He must look to primarily utilize his 75 inch reach by jabbing on the outside, while occasionally mixing it up by getting to Edward’s body. Tightening up his defense is also a must for Ramirez, particularly in this fight.  For Edwards to win he must land power punches.  Edwards in not known for his jab, and with a 3 inch reach disadvantage, he should not be attempting to outbox Ramirez.  He must take advantage of the times when Ramirez wants to fight on the inside.  Edwards owns a very powerful overhand right that he needs to find a home for.
Our suggestion: As far as super middleweights go, you will be hard pressed to find a higher volume puncher than Gilberto Ramirez, which is great news for fantasy owners.  Over his last 4 fights, Ramirez is averaging throwing a whopping 51.2 power punches per round, which is over 20 punches more than the super middleweight average.  On the flip side, Ramirez had a surprisingly tough time in his last outing, a tight unanimous decision victory against Maxim Vlasov. Ramirez does have a bad tendency to spend more time fighting on the inside than necessary.  In a fight like this against a big puncher, that tendency could prove to be extremely dangerous.  Edwards owns power in both hands and has a killer overhand right.  Just ask the previously undefeated Badou Jack –  Edwards’ first round knockout victim two fights back.  If Ramirez abandons the jab, it could be a long night for him. However, the guess here is that Ramirez learned his lesson from the Vlasov fight, and he will execute a winning game plan.

June 26
At Shelton, WA (Showtime)

Dominic Wade ($5,100) vs Sam Soliman ($4,600) — For Wade to win he must use his jab to both keep the fight at a distance and to set up his power shots. He needs to frustrate Soliman from coming inside early in the fight, and then look to use his knockout power to his advantage. For Soliman to win he must rely on his ring experience and use his conditioning in order to take this fight the distance.  Soliman will have to throw in volume to try to find his way inside.  Once he cuts down the distance, Soliman must be both effective with his punches and cautious of getting caught by Wade’s power punches.  Keeping Wade off balance by throwing at awkward angles will also prove to be important.
Our suggestion: Dominic Wade is considered to be a rising star and this fight will be an enormous test to see if he is the real deal.  This is a huge step up in class for Wade, who has not defeated anyone on his resume that compares to Soliman, who has legitimate championship experience at both middleweight and super middleweight. The undefeated Wade has been impressive thus far; knocking out 12 of his 17 opponents. However, only going the 10 round distance one time in his career thus far can prove to be problematic.  While Wade is the taller, younger, more explosive fighter, the guess here is that the 41 year old Soliman will turn back the clock one last time and pull out an upset victory.