Fantasy Previews: #ThurmanCollazo

The next group of games sees two weeks of action packed fights, including the premier of PBC on ESPN. The featured fights are Keith Thurman vs. Luis Collazo, fighting 7/11 on ESPN, and JC Chavez Jr. getting back in the ring on 7/18 on Showtime. Let’s take a look at all the matchups.
Need help with scoring? Here’s a look at the scoring breakdown for fantasy boxing at ThrowdownFantasy.com

Featured Fight
July 11
At Tampa, Florida (ESPN/ESPN Deportes)

Keith Thurman ($5,500) vs. Luis Collazo ($4,300) — For Thurman to win he must look to set up his power punches.  If Thurman throws his combinations effectively and actively goes to the body early, he can then look to land something big that can put Collazo on the canvas.  For Collazo to win he must stay away from Thurman’s power and use his jab to control distance.  Collazo’s only true advantage in this fight is his 3 inch reach over Thurman, so he will have to keep this fight on the outside and discourage Thurman from coming in.
Our suggestion: Keith “One Time” Thurman is quickly becoming a force in the welterweight division, and he is coming off arguably his most impressive performance after defeating Robert Guerrero in early March.  Thurman boasts an 80.8% knockout percentage, however he has proven that he is extremely patient and is not afraid to go the distance if the knockout is not evident.  His last fight against Guerrero should prove to be useful as Collazo is also a veteran southpaw who knows his way around the ring.  Luis Collazo is the definition of a tough, polished veteran.  It appeared as if his career could be winding down last year, but then a huge second round knockout of Victor Ortiz propelled him to a title fight against Amir Khan.  Although Collazo fought bravely against Khan, Amir was just too fast and too talented.  This appears to be the case in this fight as well.  The guess here is that Keith Thurman showcases his dominance and puts himself in line for a very meaningful fight.
Bottom Line: Thurman (huge advantage)

July 11
At Tampa, Florida (ESPN/ESPN Deportes)

Tony Harrison ($5,200) vs. Willie Nelson ($4,600) — For Harrison to win he must fight in his aggressive style.  He has an extremely quick jab that he should be looking to snap off at different angles.  Harrison should look to follow the jab with his arsenal of power punches, especially his hook.  For Nelson to win he must land meaningful counterpunches to catch Harrison’s attention.  Although Nelson is not necessarily a brawler, he does possess a nice overhand right that he can look to use to counter Harrison.  Once Nelson shows an ability to counter, he can then look to throw combinations of his own to keep Harrison away from him.
Our suggestion: Tony Harrison has kick started his career by knocking out 18 of the first 21 men he has faced.  His last ten fights have ended before the fourth round.  Fantasy owners love to hear this, as Harrison is a prime candidate to earn early knockout bonus points.  Harrison has both the hand speed and the power needed to become a champion one day, however he has yet to be tested going into this fight.  Willie Nelson is a huge step up in class for Harrison, who is yet to fight anybody with championship experience.  Although Nelson only has five more professional fights than Harrison, he is most certainly the veteran in this fight.  He is coming off a unanimous, yet competitive, decision loss in a championship fight against Vanes Martirosyan in April.  Nelson exhibits a bad tendency to throw lazy jabs and not double up, but look for him to take advantage of Harrison’s questionable defense by utilizing his overhand right.  The guess here is that Nelson’s experience proves to be the difference in this fight, which will end in an upset victory for Willie “The Great.”
Bottom Line: Nelson (possible upset)

 

See all the previews and prediction below

July 11
At Los Angeles (HBO Latino)

Mauricio Herrera ($4,800) vs. Hank Lundy ($4,600) — For Herrera to win he must keep the fight at his pace by shooting his jab from the outside.  Herrera must look to keep Lundy off balance by changing the levels of his jab, and then occasionally mixing in the overhand right behind it.  For Lundy to win he must disrupt Herrera’s rhythm by being the aggressor.  Lundy needs to be like a pitbull inside and throw in volume.  If he can smother Herrera, he can take away his reach advantage.
Our suggestion: Mauricio Herrera has run into some tough judging luck as of late, dropping two controversial decisions in 2014 to Jose Benavidez and Danny Garcia.  Herrera is a very underrated boxer, who is very difficult to beat once he gets into a groove.  Hank Lundy is a skilled boxer as well, however in order to win this fight he must put the pressure on, which is a style of boxing he can adapt to.  If Lundy allows Herrera to control the distance, it will be a long night for him.  The guess here is that Lundy will not be afraid to move in on Herrera, but Mauricio is just a little too versatile and will pull out a victory in a highly competitive fight.
Bottom Line: Herrera (slight advantage)

July 11
At Los Angeles (HBO Latino)

Michael Perez ($4,900) vs. Sharif Bogere ($4,700) — For Perez to win he must double up his jab and mix in the occasional feint in order to catch Bogere off guard.  Perez needs to avoid the temptation to get into a brawl and look to use his boxing ability to his advantage.  For Bogere to win he must use his hand speed to land quick, compact punches.  He should use his body shots to set up his left hook upstairs.  He must constantly dart in and out; never allowing Perez to get a clean look.
Our suggestion: This appears to be a very even fight on paper.  Both fighters have one loss on their resume and have since put together decent winning streaks.  Perez has a tendency to unnecessarily get into brawls, which can play right into Bogere’s hands.  Perez’s history of suffering from cuts may also play a factor in this fight.  As far as fantasy points are concerned, you will likely score more punching points from Bogere based on his history of volume punching, however the guess here is that Perez’s superior technical skills will prove to be the difference in this fight.
Bottom Line: Perez (slight advantage)

July 11
At Magdeburg, Germany

Ruslan Chagaev ($5,000) vs. Francesco Pianeta ($4,600) — For Chagaev to win he must exhibit strong ring generalship and walk his opponent down.  He has to be patient and wait for opportunities to present themselves to land big power shots.  For Pianeta to win he must look to use his 6 inch height advantage and pick Chagaev off as he tries to come inside.  Pianeta must stay away from Chagaev’s power while still landing his looping power punches.
Our suggestion: The incredible height differential should be problematic for Chagaev; however Pianeta’s style of fighting plays right into his hands.  Pianeta likes to fight inside and does not utilize his jab.  A lot of this fight will probably take place in close range, which is exactly where Chagaev needs it to be.  Although Chagaev has lost to his only two high quality opponents (Wladimir Klitschko and Alexander Povetkin), Pianeta does not own any victories that suggest he is ready for this step up.  The guess here is that Chagaev triumphs easily.
Bottom Line: Chagaev (significant advantage)

July 18
At El Paso, Texas (CBS)

Carl Frampton ($5,300) vs. Alejandro Gonzalez ($4,800) – For Frampton to win he must cut off the ring against the mobile Gonzalez, rip to Gonzalez’s rail-thin body (especially with the left hook), maintain his usual high-energy pace and cap off the attack with strong right hands. Attrition will be a big friend for Frampton because Gonzalez’s height and movement will take time to break down. For Gonzalez to win he must box, box and box some more to maximize his height and reach and keep the stronger and harder-hitting champion at bay. He must avoid inside fighting at all costs because Frampton is a strong featherweight and he’s fought mostly at lighter weights. Finally, since the fight is taking place before a friendly crowd in Texas, the Mexican Gonzalez must do everything to rev up the throng, then feed off its energy.
Our suggestion: Frampton is a good buy because he throws more, lands more and defends well. Will those traits carry over without the benefit of a partisan British crowd? Those looking for a good deal can find value in Gonzalez because of the fight’s location, his mobile style can frustrate and he possesses sneaky power.
Bottom Line: Frampton (significant advantage)

July 18
At El Paso, Texas (Showtime)

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. ($5,300) vs. Marcos Reyes ($4,600) – For Chavez Jr. to win he must report in good physical and mental shape, which hasn’t happened a lot in recent fights. In the ring he must assert his size, power and accuracy over the naturally lighter man, induce a brawl and pound him until he either falls or the final bell rings. For Reyes to pull the upset he must weather the early storm, then exploit Chavez’s painfully porous defense with volume punching. If the fight goes into the late rounds, he should stage a surge similar to the one that he produced in the final three rounds against Abraham Han, which saw him out-land Han 67-12 in round eight and 112-59 in the final nine minutes.
Our suggestion: Chavez’s flightiness makes this fight an extremely tough guess. An in-shape, motivated Chavez should easily dispose of the smaller man and pile up huge points in the process but he’s just three months removed from being pummeled by the far larger and much more active Andrzej Fonfara, who took Chavez’s heart in scoring the ninth round TKO. Reyes was chosen for a reason, but even though he lost the Han fight he showed he can be dangerous late. The guess here is that Chavez will be in good enough condition to clear this hurdle.
Bottom Line: Chavez (significant advantage)

July 18
At Halle, Germany

Arthur Abraham ($4,600) vs. Robert Stieglitz ($4,800) — For Abraham to win he must slow the tempo by snapping off punches behind his peek-a-boo guard.  He then has to mix in some flurries in order to catch the eyes of the judges.  For Stieglitz to win he must blitz Abraham early, like he did in their second fight.  He has to make Abraham fight all three minutes of every round and coax him into a brawl.
Our suggestion: This closely contested trilogy is about to add a fourth chapter.  Abraham won the rubber match last year by executing an excellent game plan of picking off Stieglitz.  He showed flashes of a youthful Abraham, exhibiting hand speed and nifty footwork.  After knocking out Abraham in the fourth round of the second installment in 2013, perhaps Stieglitz was a little too overconfident going into the third fight.  He was frustrated early when things did not go his way and started to overextend his punches.  The guess here is that Stieglitz learned his lesson from his upset loss and will tie this series up.
Bottom Line: Stieglitz (slight advantage)

July 18
At Manchester, England

Scott Quigg ($5,700) vs. Kiko Martinez ($4,400) – For Quigg to win he must use his hands-high bob-and-weave to avoid Martinez’s high-volume attack, then pick his spots with prickly body shots and power shots over the top. For Martinez to win he must come at Quigg with guns blazing and hope that the pressure will crack Quigg over time.
Our suggestion: Martinez had a nice run between April 2013 and September 2014 but the performance turned in by Quigg’s rival Carl Frampton in their rematch showed that Kiko may be a waning force. Quigg’s volume may not be overwhelming but his body attack is accurate and impressive, plus he’s tougher to hit than one would think given his aggressiveness. Quigg is near the top of his form and against a style that suits him well he should score lots of points.
Bottom Line: Quigg (huge advantage)

July 18
At Manchester, England

Darleys Perez ($4,800) vs. Anthony Crolla ($5,000) – For Perez to win he must force Crolla into a firefight, which suits Crolla’s temperament but has gotten him into trouble in the past. He also must slow Crolla’s movement, neutralize the jab, quiet the crowd and win rounds big enough to overcome Crolla’s home ring advantage. For Crolla to win he must use his mobility and hand speed to pile up points as well as exploit Perez’s leaden feet and lack of head movement. Points are key, as is composure amid the biggest fight of his career.
Our suggestion: Yes, Perez is the defending belt-holder but Crolla has a huge home ring advantage and has more fast-twitch tools than Perez, who is a strong lightweight who has the far heavier hands. Crolla is worth more money because he is capable of generating high volume and excellent plus-minus ratings while Perez fights at a more moderate pace and is generally less accurate with his punches. Emotions play a big role in boxing and if Crolla gives the Manchester crowd reason to cheer he can ride their sonic momentum to victory.
Bottom Line: Crolla (slight advantage)