WBA regular welterweight champion Keith “One-Time” Thurman wants to unify the 147-pound titles after his July 11 bout against Luis Collazo. But while beating a 2nd tier challenger like Collazo may not be that difficult, becoming the undisputed champion is a herculean task because boxing’s welterweight division is the most talent-laden in the sport. Thurman says he’s grown with every fight, but has his evolution been enough to push him to the top of the heap? Let’s find out:
Shawn Porter
Like Tim Bradley, Shawn Porter comes forward and throws volume punches (average of 182/547 punches per fight). But unlike Bradley, Porter has more pop in his fists. However, Thurman may have more power than Porter based on a common foe inJulio Diaz whom Thurman retired in 3 rounds and whom Porter beat by UD.
Porter is also easily baited to a slugfest so Thurman has a chance to score big fantasy points with a KO. But Porter is durable and doesn’t fade, although he can be floored late (12th round against AB). Size-wise, they are equals so that should push this to 12 rounds which is alien territory for Thurman. Against Robert Guerrero, Thurman was uncomfortable fighting dirty on the inside, which a pressure guy like Porter will utilize. However, Thurman survived Guerrero by clinching and that same tactic helped Kell Brook take away Porter’s IBF title.
Throwdown Fantasy Verdict: Thurman by KO or close decision
Amir Khan
Thurman called Amir Khan a “soft cherry picker” and he may be correct. Since being knocked out by Danny Garcia, Khan has fought pillow-punchers who are smaller than him, the last one being Chris Algieri last month.
Stat-wise, these two match up well with Thurman having a slight edge in punches landed (156.5 vs 152) and connect percentage (34% vs 31.5%) while Khan throws more punches (483.3 vs 460.7). The key factor however is Khan’s glass jaw which Thurman’s power will expose. The argument for Khan is his change in perespective under Virgil Hunter which has made him less susceptible to getting floored.
But a more technical slugger like Thurman should force Khan to back pedal which isn’t Amir’s comfort zone . Thurman’s power is too much for Khan and this should be a big scoring fantasy game for Thurman with multiple knockdowns.
Throwdown Fantasy Verdict: Thurman by KO
Kell Brook
At 5-9 , 68.5% KO rate, sound defense and excellent technique, Kell Brook is a tough match up for any welterweight. But while he proved a lot of doubters wrong by withstanding the aggressive Shawn Porter, Brook hasn’t fought an opponent who hits as hard as Thurman who can hurt him like never before.
Porter’s aggressive style was tailor-made for Brook’s game. But Thurman doesn’t fight like Porter and uses a calculated approach in going for knockouts. This fight could be a chess match early with both trying to avoid each other’s power shots. If Thurman can hurt Brook, he’ll knock him out late. But if Brook takes Thurman’s punches well, this could end with the better boxer Brook winning close. Fantasy scores should be low if there’s no KO because both won’t risk throwing too much and get hit, making this gamer’s risk.
Fantasy Throwdown Verdict: Too close to call
Manny Pacquiao
After Pacquiao‘ s loss to Mayweather, Thurman said:
“Manny Pacquiao is no longer the second best, he’s no longer really the third best. We’ve seen the formula to beat Pacquiao many times and I think there are several welterweights that are either able to go toe to toe with Pacquiao or actually beat him,”
Pacquiao has lost just 6 times in his career, just twice as a welterweight including the controversial SD loss to Bradley. Manny Pacquiao is no longer the destroyer that toppled the likes of Hatton, Cotto and Margarito. But remember that he was one round away from a draw with Mayweather, injured shoulder or not. Pacquiao has evolved into a more complete fighter which suits him as he is older. If this fight happens within 2016, Pacquiao has the edge with experience and speed. He will get plenty of punching stats against Thurman who is very hittable. No knockdown bonus points though for both.
Throwdown Fantasy Verdict: Pacquiao by marginal UD
Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Thurman’s also called out Floyd Mayweather Jr. although he said he’s willing to wait. That may be the wise move right now because according to Robert Guerrero who’s faced both, Thurman isn’t ready:
“Thurman’s a solid fighter, but Floyd is extremely fast. His reaction time is quick. I couldn’t even land punches on him, really. That’s how quick he is. It’s how quick his reaction time is. In time maybe he’ll [Thurman] be ready .”
Mayweather’s easily beaten guys with a bigger punch in Canelo, Cotto and Pacman. We don’t need to go into stats when talking about this match-up because Floyd isn’t so much about stats and fantasy points. He’s more about what opponents can’t do against him. Ask Pacman who averaged 172/530 (32.45) punches but who Mayweather limited to 81/429 (18.8%) punches. Mayweather will make Thurman look amateur and frustrate him. However, Floyd won’t risk too many exchanges with a power hitter so expect Money to score at the same ballpark of #Maypac which was 49.8 points.
Fantasy Throwdown Verdict: Mayeather by near shutout UD
Where Thurman Stands?
Thurman is currently ranked #3 by Fightnews.com, #6 by Skysports, #4 by ESPN and #5 by The Ring. Although nearing retirement, Mayweather and Pacquiao are still on top of that list. We’re going with Thurman at#4 and put Kell Brook on the podium along with Floyd and Manny. But Thurman’s still 26 and will only improve in time. Make no mistake though, Thurman already belongs to the elite and his fists have served notice.
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